Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts

Saturday, June 7, 2008

National Anthem for sale? - The story of Hockey Night in Canada theme

I probably shouldn’t be blogging tonight as I am driving early tomorrow morning to Banff to attend two conferences (Future of Digital Content & Banff World TV Festival).

Anyway, I will spend a few minutes here to share my thoughts. CBC's official blog and CBC National (as the lead news item) that the deal to keep the Hockey Night in Canada theme has fallen apart. So no more Hockey Night in Canada theme. Toronto Star reports (with video) here.

Now, if you look strictly at the economics, CBC executives may be right to offer what it did and walk away from a “bad deal”. (I leave it as an exercise for the readers to calculate the present value of the estimated cash value of the theme until it runs out of its copyright protection. Hint: it is no small change.) And try to buy peace (or bribe us) by paying $100,000 as a prize for Canadians to come up with a new theme.

Because the theme has been used for closed to 40 years, it has become so well recognized and has acquired an almost national-anthem-like feeling to some Canadians. To me, the theme is a rock solid Lovemark.

In our capitalistic world, it is up to Dolores Claman (composer of the theme) and her agent to negotiate a best deal. It might be fun to apply some game theory and the PARTS strategy (the elements of a game are: Players, Added values, Rules, Tactics, and Scope) to analyze this particular business situation in a step by step manner.

P.S. In a Web 2.0 connected world, the rules, tactics and scope have been changed and redefined. Ultimately, I think missteps from either side can cause some unexpected damages rather quickly.

Monday, June 2, 2008

Links: 2008-06-02

Saturday, May 24, 2008

Richard Florida @ Google & Banff

I was really lucky to watch a CBC National video report and “discovered” Richard Florida tonight. (smile) I am going to pay attention to Rich’s ideas and I have subscribed to his blog. Check out his latest book - “Who’s Your City?: How the Creative Economy Is Making Where to Live the Most Important Decision of Your Life.”

Here is a video of Rich interviewed by George on The Hour.

The following is an hour long video of Rich speaking at Google, NYC.

And if you are really keen and have nothing better to do (smile), then check out another hour long video of Rich speaking at Google, Headquater in CA (essentially the same speech but with a different set of Q&A starting at 48:45).

P.S. On a personal note, Rich reminds me of some of the great U of Toronto professors that I had. Great job in bringing Rich to Toronto. And I am looking forward to listening to Rich live at Banff World TV Festival.

P.P.S. Here is one of Rich’s recent blog post on Jane Jacobs.

P.P.P.S. I wonder if Rich gets some money from this BMW ad? (smile) By the way, I think I actually first read about Rich here in this UT magazine article.

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Freeconomics - The power of free?

Wired magazine editor-in-chief Chris Anderson's "freeconomics" seems paradoxically plausible until you look into his arguments/examples as explained in this Financial Post article. On the surface, it seemed like some thought experiments gone bad to me. There are some interesting examples in the article but then the generalization just seemed to be off a bit. After all, "ostensibly free" is not quite free. Worth a read.

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Re: The most important statement made by Steven Cheung

Interesting to read what Wallace considers as “the most important statement made by Steven Cheung“. For the curious readers who want to read the complete article where this quote comes from and the statement’s context, you can check out “假若人是不自私的(附后记)” (1984.02.17).

I don’t know enough to pick which is Steven Cheung’s most important statement. But I can say Steven Cheung’s way of thinking and analyzing problems play an important role in shaping my own. And Cheung has written this series of articles to share his insight in 1984,

思考的方法(上), (中), (下)

As an aside, some of my friends have commented that I read very broadly. Over the years, I’ve tried to learn from a diverse group of people. If you have time, I encourage you read and learn from people like Warren Buffett, Richard Feynman, and Bill Buxton (with videos and book recommendations). These three people are very different from each other but I believe we can learn from them just the same. For fun, I’ve created a series of posts call Great minds of our time to share my personal picks of some of the great public minds of our time.

Saturday, April 5, 2008

New lecture by Justin Lin, Chief Economist of The World Bank

[hat tip to: Leona]

Justin Lin, new Chief Economist of The World Bank, delivered a new English speech “Development and Transition: Idea, Strategy and Viability” at the Chinese University of Hong Kong on March 31, 2008.

Enjoy.

Monday, March 17, 2008

Bear Stearns and the good old LTCM

Looking at Bear Stearns‘ current trouble reminded me of the mess that Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) created in 1998. Both companies received bailouts because, as the justification goes, the potential risk of starting a chain reaction that may lead to a meltdown is too high. A failure of one may lead to defaults of the counterparties of the derivative contracts.

Quoting the WSJ (emphasis added),

Of course, the Fed has sponsored bailouts of entities outside its purview before, as when it herded banks to unwind Long-Term Capital Management a decade ago. Then, too, it was concerned about banks’ counterparty exposure to the hedge fund.

That kind of exposure has increased a lot since then through the ballooning derivatives markets. Credit derivatives, which barely existed when LTCM ran aground, now constitute a $50 trillion market, though much of that consists of offsetting contracts. Other derivatives markets have also grown.

This Bloomberg article is a good read as well. Here is an excerpt (emphasis added),

“Lehman has probably the best risk management and has been diversifying for years,” said Mark Williams, a former Federal Reserve official who teaches finance at Boston University School of Management. “But this is no longer about Bear or Lehman. It’s about the erosion and lack of confidence in the financial system. The Wall Street business model is based on ready capital. With rumors, that liquidity they rely on dries up very fast.”

Monday, March 10, 2008

free lunch with Steven Cheung

A four friends and I have started a new blog "free lunch with Steven Cheung (五友 論 五常)" to talk about articles and ideas by the deeply insightful economist Steven Cheung (see my my many blog entries here).

Please feel free to check it out.

Thursday, March 6, 2008

Spring Roll & Sushi Strike in Israel

The Israeli government has announced it wants to drastically cut down the number of foreign chefs from 900 last year to zero next year! So Chinese restaurants had their Spring Roll strike already, and Japanese restaurants will have their Sushi strike next.

The government's goal was to try to force the training of local talents. But paradoxically, as one of the restaurant owner said in this CBC news report (wmv file), there are 100 staffs in his restaurant, only 10 are foreigners, and his restaurant will likely have to be closed down if the chefs are gone as he thinks that the restaurants that remains open after all the foreign chefs are gone will be serving "crappy food". This is a good example of government trying to help an industry and ends up killing it.

So true. And really sad.

Also see this BBC report.

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Google Chief Economist Blogs

Yes, Google *has* a Chief Economist, his name is Hal and he blogs. He is from the Haas School of Business, and the Department of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley.

P.S. I hope Hal’s next entry has more “economics” in it as the above blog entry is kinda blah, has little to do with economics, and not much new info.

Quebec is #1 (China is #53)

Quebec is #1 (with a score of 97.0) and Honduras sucks big time (with an almost impossible 0.0) according to the "Survey of Mining Companies: 2007/2008" published by The Fraser Institute. [hat tip: Wallace]

Quoting the Survey,

Along with Quebec, the top 10 scorers on the PPI are Nevada, Finland, Alberta, Manitoba, Chile, Utah, Wyoming, Ireland, and Sweden.

Along with Honduras, the bottom 10 scorers are Zimbabwe, Ecuador, Panama, Bolivia, India, Indonesia, Mongolia, Philippines, and Venezuela.

Setting aside my stats questions and concerns about the survey (see note 1), I've gained some very valuable insights. In particular, I found the "What the Miners Are Saying" section really fascinating to read and wish it is longer and more extensive.

Here is an excerpt of some entries related to Quebec,

Quebec: Refusal of the mines department to enforce their own laws in order to support the industry. A stunning about face and lack of balls (excuse me, leadership) by the government.
—President, Exploration Company

Quebec [has] a strong but justifiable regulatory regime, evenly and logically applied, supported by government initiatives to promote exploration and development.
—Exploration Company, President

As someone interested in many things China (e.g. her legal and business environment). Here is an excerpt of some entries related to China (emphasis added),

We spent 1.2 years in China trying to get a partnership in a gold property; we spent US$400,000 without being able to have a partnership organized and clear titles.
—Exploration Company, President

In China, despite favorable policies espoused by central government, there is a disconnect with how those [policies] are interpreted and acted upon in the provinces. Also policies/regulations are enshrined [but] impinge on or don’t recognize technical realities.
—Exploration Company, President

China: Virtually impossible to reach a binding legal agreement.
—Exploration Company, President

China’s government works with groups to find solutions to commission mines and create jobs. [K: This seems to be the only positive comment.]
—Exploration Company, Manager

China [suffers from] uncertainty of land tenure because of the necessity to partner with government entities who prove untrustworthy. After giving our partner in China $300,000+ in cash, land covering the JV [joint venture] area was never transferred into the name of the JV: delay after delay. Finally we gave up on the property and moved out of China. This scenario has been repeated time and time again in China—word is traveling in investment circles that everyone who works in China is getting “ripped off.”
—Exploration Company, Consultant

China [has] an extremely difficult bureaucratic system.
—Exploration Company, Vice President

*******

Note 1: First of all, I am no statistical expert. But not being an expert has not stopped me from opening my big mouth. (smile) So please consider that yourself warned of my potentially idiotic comments here.

Let me lay out some figures of the surveys as stated in the reports (I have downloaded the previous three years' reports as well).

2007/2008 Survey

Surveys sent to approx. 3000 companies, 372 companies (12.4%) responded. Companies surveyed spent US$1.48 billion, representing a 14.8 percent of total global exploration of $9.99 billion.

2006/2007 Survey

Surveys sent to approx. 3000 companies, 333 companies (11.1%) responded. Companies surveyed spent US$1.02 billion, representing a 14.5 percent of total global exploration of $7.13 billion.

2005/2006 Survey

Surveys sent to approx. 1435 companies, 322 companies (22.4%) responded. Companies surveyed spent US$1.83 billion, representing a 35.9 percent of total global exploration of $5.1 billion.

2004/2005 Survey

Surveys sent to approx. 1121 companies, 259 companies (23.1%) responded. Companies surveyed spent US$574.7 million, representing a 15.1 percent of total global exploration of $3.8 billion.

*******

Here are some of my questions/observations/suggestions,

1) Because the identities of the surveyed companies are confidential, we don't know how different are the companies participating from year to year. Different companies may lead to somewhat different scores and rankings based on the varying level of expertise of the managers in these companies.

2) Comparing the 2007/2008 and 2006/2007 surveys rankings may give a sense of false improvements or worsening as there were 39 more companies participating in the 2007/2008 survey (372 vs 333). And these companies all contribute to the scoring. At the same time, the percentage of total global exploration expenditures represented in the survey hold around 14.5 - 14.8%.

3) The spending of 2005/2006 surveyed companies represented 35.9% of global exploration spending which one may argue is slightly more "trust-worthy" if the money invested can be used as proxy for how "smart" these companies are. (note: In the long run, the companies that make large and bad investments will not last in the industry and their "stupidity" will be self-corrected by their elimination in the survey results.)

4) Expending on the idea in #3, I think the score given by companies should not be equally weighted. There should be some form of weighted measure linking their exploration expenditures (weighted over say a few years (3?)) to their scores they provide. For example, shouldn't the rating given by a company that spent 200 million should be viewed as more "authoritative" than a company that spent 1 million?

As a thought experiment, if the 372 companies are to be divided into two halves based on their dollars invested from the most to the least, I would argue the combined scores of the top half of 186 companies with more investments will be more "insightful" than the bottom 186 companies. Again, this assumes it is meaningful to use the investment dollars of the companies as proxy for their level of "expertise"/"insightfulness"/"smart".

Sunday, March 2, 2008

Links: 2008-03-02 Google Sites, Chinese sue Yahoo, Scrabulous, Share Tenancy

Elevate Lives of the Poor - Marie and Carol, co-founders of Ventures in Development

I have just become a big fan of Marie So and Carol Chyau, co-founders of Ventures in Development, grads of Harvard KSG (Kennedy School of Government). Their Ventures in Development is a "social enterprise that seeks to elevate the lives of the poor through growing the spirit of entrepreneurship".

My better half and I were amazed by the wonderful work of Marie and Carol featured in the 2007 August episode " 創 富 濟 貧" by RTHK (see episode info at the end of this post). Their actions and hard work really show they want to help the poor in rural China while ensuring their help is not simply charity but to help them become self-sustaining business entrepreneurs. It was wonderful to see the Ventures in Development team positively affecting the lives of many poor people living in harsh existence.

I've found this 2006/12/8 Harvard Business School piece quite informative, "Business Plan Contest Looks East: Risk, Opportunity Define China's Economic Landscape".

Here is their "home-made" YouTube video ad of one of their business - Mei Xiang Yak Cheese. Their other business is Shokay, maker of luxury product using yak down (the Tibetan word for yak down is "Shokay").

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAN2bzdZCTk]

P.S. I wander how much trouble will I get myself into, if I comment that the team members are ladies and all very charming and cute? (smile) Incidentally, Marie did comment in the RTHK program that they had to work extra hard to overcome some of their business partners' initial prejudices that they were too young to be taken seriously as entrepreneurs. At the end, I think VID's results in such a short time speaks volume (based on what was shown on the RTHK program).

P.P.S. Following are info for the 2007 August " 創 富 濟 貧" episode by RTHK,

社 會 企 業 的 定 義 , 是 以 協 助 弱 勢 社 群 等 作 為 目 標 , 以 商 業 運 作 的 企 業 。

Marie 與 Carol , 一個 香 港 人 , 一 個 台 灣 人 , 在 美 國 讀 書 時 認 識 , 還 有 一 個 社 會 企 業 夢 , 她 們 的 概 念 在哈 佛 大 學 一 年 一 度 的 商 業 企 劃 比 賽 中 脫 穎 而 出 , 不 但 獲 得 校 方 頒 發 的 1.5 萬 美 元 獎金 , 還 得 到 不 少 創 投 基 金 垂 青 , 成 立 了 公 司 , 現 時 在 中 國 雲 南 和 青 海 地 區 , 進 行 兩個 社 會 企 業 項 目 , 包 括 建 設 犛 牛 奶 酪 廠 , 研 製 犛 牛 毛 製 品 等 項 目 , 幫 助 牧 民 脫 貧 。

事 實 上 , 中 國 西 部 雖 然 有 豐富 的 資 源 , 但 卻 缺 乏 市 場 資 訊 和 銷 售 渠 道 , 蘇 芷 君 希 望 可 以 擔 當 起 橋 樑 的 角 色 , 好似 將 收 購 自 牧 民 的 牛 毛 製 成 圍 巾 , 質 量 可 以 媲 美 茄 士 咩 , 而 引 進 海 外 的 牛 奶 加 工 技術 所 製 成 的 奶 酪 , 更 受 大 型 酒 店 和 餐 館 的 歡 迎 , 直 接 增 加 牧 民 收 入 是 短 期 目 標 , 長遠 而 言 , 希 望 能 增 加 受 助 的 牧 民 家 庭 , 並 把 盈 利 盡 量 投 放 在 當 地 的 社 區 建 設 上 。

特 首 曾 蔭 權 的 扶 貧 大 計 之 一, 是 要 推 動 「 社 會 企 業 」 , 但 很 多 香 港 人 都 不 清 楚 社 會 企 業 與 非 牟 利 組 織 或 慈 善 團體 有 甚 麼 不 一 樣 , 本 集 將 會 透 過 兩 人 的 親 身 經 歷 , 講 述 她 如 何 將 扶 貧 的 概 念 , 以 商業 運 作 的 形 式 予 以 實 現 。

編 導 : 李 君 萍

Friday, February 29, 2008

More Steven Cheung Videos

For those that understand Cantonese or Mandarin, I’ve found a few more interesting and insightful videos of the insightful Chinese economist Steven Cheung. (see my extensive blog entries tagged with Steven Cheung)

On the occasion of Steven Cheung’s 70th birthday (in 2005), he talks about his academic thinking process and how he learns economics Part 1, Part 2, Part 3

《张五常七十诞辰学术思想研讨会》上的发言,题为《七十自述:我是怎样研究经济的?》 Part 1, Part 2, Part 3

Brief speech before 70th birthday dinner part 1, part 2

《张五常七十诞辰晚宴》上的发言 part 1, part 2

P.S. Here is an interesting Chinese interview posted on 2007, Apr 24 “张五常:我是天才因为我简单

P.P.S. I am eagerly waiting for Steven Cheung’s upcoming English paper “The Economic System of China” which should be a great read to understand China.

Friday, February 15, 2008

5 Pages of Lighthouse, FCC, and Social Cost

Sometimes 69-page journal articles may seem overwhelming even to the most avid readers. (smile) So I’ve decided to read a few classics, 5 pages at a time. Currently on my 5-page list are three articles by Ronald Coase,

  1. The Lighthouse in Economics”,
  2. The Federal Communications Commission”, and
  3. The Problem of Social Cost

Special thanks to Law Librarian Susan at University of Calgary for her great help in tracking down Prof. Coase for me. Thanks Susan.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

To encounter Wallace

My economist friend Wallace Chan has launched his Chinese blog “To Encounter Wallace“. I hope you will learn from and enjoy it as much as I do.